Futuristic Risk Intelligence
This server provides AI agents with daily-updated geopolitical risk intelligence for trading, risk management, and research. It offers three core tools:
Get Conflict Risk Probabilities: Access probability estimates (1, 7, and 30-day horizons) for escalation, ceasefire, regime change, and diplomatic events across 6 major conflict regions (Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel/US, Israel-Palestine, China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, US-Latin America). Includes situation briefings, risk impact analysis, trend tracking vs. 7 days ago, anomaly flags, and confidence indicators. Filterable by region.
Get Political Events: Retrieve high-impact upcoming events with probability estimates, deadlines, confidence levels, and importance ratings. Covers political events (elections, policy changes), economic risks, and natural disasters. Filterable by category.
Get Maritime Traffic ⚠️ (Currently Suspended): Intended to provide vessel counts and types at critical maritime chokepoints (Strait of Hormuz, Taiwan Strait, etc.), but currently unavailable due to data reliability issues.
Futuristic Risk Intelligence — MCP Server & Data Feed
Geopolitical conflict risk data for AI agents via Model Context Protocol (MCP). Updated daily.
MCP Tools
Tool | Description |
| Risk probabilities for 6 major geopolitical conflicts (escalation, ceasefire, regime change) with 1d/7d/30d horizons |
| High-impact political, economic, and natural disaster events with probability estimates |
| ⚠️ Suspended — AIS snapshot data does not meet reliability standards. Returns |
Related MCP server: AletaIndex Narrative Intelligence
Install
pip install war-dashboard-dataQuick Start
Claude Desktop
Add to your claude_desktop_config.json:
{
"mcpServers": {
"futuristic-risk": {
"command": "war-dashboard-data"
}
}
}Then ask Claude: "What's the current escalation risk for Russia-Ukraine?"
Direct API (REST)
curl https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cct15/war-dashboard-data/main/conflicts.jsonCoverage
6 conflict regions: Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel/US, Israel-Palestine, China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, US-Latin America
5 event types with clear risk direction:
Event Type | Meaning | Direction |
| Military escalation (strikes, invasion, nuclear test) | risk_increase |
| Ceasefire or peace agreement reached | risk_decrease |
| Existing ceasefire breaks down | risk_increase |
| Government falls or changes | risk_increase |
| Major diplomatic event (nuclear deal, treaty) | neutral |
Data Schema
conflicts.json
Each conflict includes:
Field | Description |
| Region identifier (e.g. |
| Editorial priority: |
| Overall risk: |
| P(event occurs within time horizon) |
| Daily situation summary in Chinese, based on latest news |
| Structured impact analysis: |
| Breakdown by event type with per-type probabilities |
|
|
| Probability delta vs. 7 days ago |
| Number of data sources (for confidence assessment) |
| Whether probability diverges from news intensity |
political_events.json
Political, economic, and natural disaster events with probability estimates.
Field | Description |
| Event description (Chinese) |
| Event description (English) |
|
|
| Estimated probability of occurrence |
| Editorial priority: |
| Event deadline (YYYY-MM-DD), if applicable |
|
|
importance field
Both conflicts.json and political_events.json include an importance field:
high— Editorially recommended. Active conflicts, high-probability events, or events with significant recent changes. Matches the daily intelligence report's display filter.low— Included for data completeness. Low probability, no active events, or not a current focus area. Agents may still find these useful for comprehensive monitoring.
maritime.json
⚠️ Suspended: Free AIS data (45-second snapshots) produces sporadic zero-vessel readings in busy straits, which could mislead agents into inferring blockades. Returns {"status": "unavailable", "zones": []}. Will resume when a reliable AIS source is found.
Use Cases
Trading agents: Adjust crypto/commodity positions based on geopolitical risk changes
Risk management: Monitor conflict escalation probabilities for portfolio hedging
DeFi protocols: Dynamic collateral ratios based on geopolitical risk
Research agents: Track probability trends across 6 conflict regions
News agents: Get structured risk data instead of parsing headlines
Technical Details
Zero dependencies: MCP server uses only Python stdlib (works with Python 3.9+)
Data source: Proprietary multi-source modeling
Update frequency: Daily
Latency: Public data has ~24h delay
License
Data is free for non-commercial use. Contact for commercial licensing.
Website & Research
futuristicrisks.com — Live risk dashboard, cascade impact analysis, daily verified intelligence, and API documentation.
Research articles:
Built by Futuristic Risk Intelligence.
Available Tools
3 toolsget_conflict_risksA
Get current geopolitical conflict risk probabilities for 6 major regions: Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel/US, Israel-Palestine, China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, US-Latin America. Each conflict includes probability of escalation, ceasefire, regime change, and other events within 1-day, 7-day, and 30-day horizons. Probabilities are derived from proprietary multi-source modeling. Updated daily. Use this to assess geopolitical risk exposure for trading or risk management.
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| conflict_id | No | Optional: filter to a single conflict region. Valid values: russia_ukraine, iran_israel_us, israel_palestine, china_taiwan, india_pakistan, us_latam. Omit to get all 6 regions. |
TDQS
Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?
No annotations provided, so description carries full burden. Discloses critical behavioral traits: data provenance ('proprietary multi-source modeling'), update frequency ('Updated daily'), and output structure (probabilities for escalation/ceasefire/regime change across 1/7/30-day horizons). Lacks operational details like rate limits or caching, but covers data freshness and scope thoroughly.
Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.
Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?
Three well-structured sentences: (1) scope and regions, (2) data content and methodology, (3) usage guidance. No wasted words; every clause provides necessary information. Front-loaded with the core action 'Get current geopolitical conflict risk probabilities' immediately establishing purpose.
Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.
Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?
Despite lacking an output schema, the description comprehensively details the return data: specific event types (escalation, ceasefire, regime change), time horizons (1/7/30-day), and scope (6 regions). With only one optional parameter fully documented in schema, the description provides sufficient completeness for an agent to predict both input requirements and output structure.
Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.
Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?
Input schema has 100% description coverage with complete enum documentation. Description lists the 6 regions (Russia-Ukraine, etc.) which maps to enum values, but this largely repeats the schema's content. With schema coverage already comprehensive, baseline 3 is appropriate as description adds minimal semantic value beyond parameter mapping.
Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.
Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?
Description uses specific verb 'Get' with clear resource 'geopolitical conflict risk probabilities' and enumerates all 6 supported regions. It clearly distinguishes from sibling tools: 'get_maritime_traffic' (shipping) and 'get_political_events' (general politics) by specifying probabilistic conflict forecasting for specific military/political flashpoints.
Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.
Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?
Explicitly states the use case: 'Use this to assess geopolitical risk exposure for trading or risk management.' This provides clear context for when to invoke the tool. Does not explicitly name sibling alternatives, but the domain specificity (conflict probabilities vs. maritime traffic) makes differentiation clear without negative guidance.
Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.
get_maritime_trafficA
Get vessel counts in critical maritime chokepoints: Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea, Taiwan Strait, Arabian Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, Caribbean. Includes breakdown by vessel type (tanker, cargo, military, other). Data is a snapshot from AIS receivers (not full-day throughput). Military vessels often turn off AIS transponders so counts may underestimate. Updated daily. Use this to monitor supply chain disruption risks.
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| zone_id | No | Optional: filter to a single maritime zone. |
TDQS
Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?
No annotations provided, so description carries full burden. Excellently discloses data source (AIS receivers), temporal behavior (snapshot vs. throughput), data quality limitations (military vessels underestimate counts), and update cadence (daily). Provides critical context about data reliability that annotations would typically cover.
Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.
Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?
Six distinct sentences each serving unique purpose: purpose/scope, data breakdown, source clarification, limitation warning, update frequency, and use case. No redundancy or filler; information density is high throughout.
Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.
Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?
Lacks output schema but description compensates well by detailing return contents (vessel counts with type breakdown) and data characteristics. Missing only structural format details, but sufficiently describes the payload for effective use given the simple single-parameter input.
Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.
Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?
Schema has 100% coverage for the single optional parameter, establishing baseline 3. Description adds value by enumerating specific zone examples (Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea, etc.) which helps users understand valid zone_id values without being exhaustive.
Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.
Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?
Description opens with specific verb 'Get' + resource 'vessel counts' + scope 'critical maritime chokepoints' and enumerates specific zones (Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea, etc.). Clearly distinguishes from siblings get_conflict_risks and get_political_events by focusing on maritime traffic data versus political/conflict analysis.
Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.
Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?
Provides explicit use case: 'Use this to monitor supply chain disruption risks.' Also implies limitations ('not full-day throughput') that guide appropriate use. Does not explicitly name sibling alternatives, but the domain distinction (maritime traffic vs conflicts/events) is clear enough for selection.
Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.
get_political_eventsA
Get high-impact political, economic, and natural disaster events with probability estimates. Includes elections, policy changes, economic risks, and natural disasters. Each event has a probability, deadline, and confidence level. Updated daily.
| Name | Required | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| category | No | Optional: filter by event category. |
TDQS
Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?
With no annotations provided, the description carries the full burden. It successfully discloses data freshness ('Updated daily') and return value structure ('probability, deadline, and confidence level'), but omits operational details like error handling, rate limits, or safety characteristics.
Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.
Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?
Four sentences efficiently cover purpose, event examples, return data structure, and update frequency. Every sentence contributes distinct information without redundancy or filler.
Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.
Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?
Given the absence of an output schema, the description adequately compensates by detailing the return value fields (probability, deadline, confidence). For a single-parameter tool, it provides sufficient context, though explicit differentiation from conflict-risk tools would improve completeness.
Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.
Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?
Although the schema has 100% coverage for the single 'category' parameter, the description adds valuable semantic context by listing example event types (elections, policy changes, economic risks) that map to the enum values (political, economic, natural_disaster), clarifying what each category encompasses.
Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.
Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?
The description clearly states the tool retrieves 'high-impact political, economic, and natural disaster events' with specific examples (elections, policy changes). However, it does not explicitly differentiate from the sibling tool 'get_conflict_risks', which could conceptually overlap with political events.
Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.
Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?
The description provides no explicit guidance on when to use this tool versus siblings like 'get_conflict_risks' or 'get_maritime_traffic'. While it characterizes the data (probability estimates, daily updates), it lacks 'when-to-use' or 'when-not-to-use' criteria.
Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.
Tool Schema Changelog
Recent tool additions, removals, and schema changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.
3 tool updates
v0.1.0- First observed
get_conflict_risks - First observed
get_maritime_traffic - First observed
get_political_events
TDQS
Each tool has a clearly distinct purpose: get_conflict_risks focuses on geopolitical conflict probabilities, get_maritime_traffic on vessel traffic in chokepoints, and get_political_events on broader high-impact events. There is no overlap in functionality, making it easy for an agent to select the correct tool based on the query.
All tool names follow a consistent verb_noun pattern with 'get_' prefix (get_conflict_risks, get_maritime_traffic, get_political_events). This uniformity enhances predictability and readability, allowing agents to easily understand and navigate the toolset.
With only 3 tools, the set feels thin for a server named 'Futuristic Risk Intelligence,' which implies a broader scope. While each tool is distinct, the count may be insufficient for comprehensive risk assessment, potentially limiting agent capabilities in this domain.
The toolset has significant gaps for a risk intelligence domain. It lacks tools for updating, analyzing, or managing risk data (e.g., no create, update, or delete operations), and does not cover other risk aspects like financial, cybersecurity, or environmental risks, making the surface incomplete for the stated purpose.
Maintenance
Resources
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