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cct15

Futuristic Risk Intelligence

by cct15

Futuristic Risk Intelligence — MCP Server & Data Feed

Geopolitical conflict risk data for AI agents via Model Context Protocol (MCP). Updated daily.

PyPI war-dashboard-data MCP server

MCP Tools

Tool

Description

get_conflict_risks

Risk probabilities for 6 major geopolitical conflicts (escalation, ceasefire, regime change) with 1d/7d/30d horizons

get_political_events

High-impact political, economic, and natural disaster events with probability estimates

get_maritime_traffic

⚠️ Suspended — AIS snapshot data does not meet reliability standards. Returns status: unavailable.

Related MCP server: AletaIndex Narrative Intelligence

Install

pip install war-dashboard-data

Quick Start

Claude Desktop

Add to your claude_desktop_config.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "futuristic-risk": {
      "command": "war-dashboard-data"
    }
  }
}

Then ask Claude: "What's the current escalation risk for Russia-Ukraine?"

Direct API (REST)

curl https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cct15/war-dashboard-data/main/conflicts.json

Coverage

6 conflict regions: Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel/US, Israel-Palestine, China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, US-Latin America

5 event types with clear risk direction:

Event Type

Meaning

Direction

escalation

Military escalation (strikes, invasion, nuclear test)

risk_increase

ceasefire

Ceasefire or peace agreement reached

risk_decrease

ceasefire_cancel

Existing ceasefire breaks down

risk_increase

regime_change

Government falls or changes

risk_increase

diplomatic

Major diplomatic event (nuclear deal, treaty)

neutral

Data Schema

conflicts.json

Each conflict includes:

Field

Description

conflict_id

Region identifier (e.g. russia_ukraine, iran_israel_us)

importance

Editorial priority: high (active/major conflict, recommended for display) or low (low probability, included for data completeness)

risk_level

Overall risk: high / medium / low

probability_30d / 7d / 1d

P(event occurs within time horizon)

situation_briefing

Daily situation summary in Chinese, based on latest news

risk_impact

Structured impact analysis: industries[], assets[], channels[] (transmission paths)

risk_events[]

Breakdown by event type with per-type probabilities

risk_events[].direction

risk_increase (higher prob = more danger) or risk_decrease (higher prob = less danger)

risk_events[].change_vs_7d_ago

Probability delta vs. 7 days ago

data_points

Number of data sources (for confidence assessment)

anomaly_detected

Whether probability diverges from news intensity

political_events.json

Political, economic, and natural disaster events with probability estimates.

Field

Description

event_summary

Event description (Chinese)

event_summary_en

Event description (English)

category

political / economic / natural_disaster

probability

Estimated probability of occurrence

importance

Editorial priority: high (recommended for display) or low (data completeness)

deadline

Event deadline (YYYY-MM-DD), if applicable

data_confidence

high / medium / low (based on trading volume)

importance field

Both conflicts.json and political_events.json include an importance field:

  • high — Editorially recommended. Active conflicts, high-probability events, or events with significant recent changes. Matches the daily intelligence report's display filter.

  • low — Included for data completeness. Low probability, no active events, or not a current focus area. Agents may still find these useful for comprehensive monitoring.

maritime.json

⚠️ Suspended: Free AIS data (45-second snapshots) produces sporadic zero-vessel readings in busy straits, which could mislead agents into inferring blockades. Returns {"status": "unavailable", "zones": []}. Will resume when a reliable AIS source is found.

Use Cases

  • Trading agents: Adjust crypto/commodity positions based on geopolitical risk changes

  • Risk management: Monitor conflict escalation probabilities for portfolio hedging

  • DeFi protocols: Dynamic collateral ratios based on geopolitical risk

  • Research agents: Track probability trends across 6 conflict regions

  • News agents: Get structured risk data instead of parsing headlines

Technical Details

  • Zero dependencies: MCP server uses only Python stdlib (works with Python 3.9+)

  • Data source: Proprietary multi-source modeling

  • Update frequency: Daily

  • Latency: Public data has ~24h delay

License

Data is free for non-commercial use. Contact for commercial licensing.

Website & Research

futuristicrisks.com — Live risk dashboard, cascade impact analysis, daily verified intelligence, and API documentation.

Research articles:

Built by Futuristic Risk Intelligence.

Available Tools

3 tools
get_conflict_risksA

Get current geopolitical conflict risk probabilities for 6 major regions: Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel/US, Israel-Palestine, China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, US-Latin America. Each conflict includes probability of escalation, ceasefire, regime change, and other events within 1-day, 7-day, and 30-day horizons. Probabilities are derived from proprietary multi-source modeling. Updated daily. Use this to assess geopolitical risk exposure for trading or risk management.

ParametersJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
conflict_idNoOptional: filter to a single conflict region. Valid values: russia_ukraine, iran_israel_us, israel_palestine, china_taiwan, india_pakistan, us_latam. Omit to get all 6 regions.

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

No annotations provided, so description carries full burden. Discloses critical behavioral traits: data provenance ('proprietary multi-source modeling'), update frequency ('Updated daily'), and output structure (probabilities for escalation/ceasefire/regime change across 1/7/30-day horizons). Lacks operational details like rate limits or caching, but covers data freshness and scope thoroughly.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Three well-structured sentences: (1) scope and regions, (2) data content and methodology, (3) usage guidance. No wasted words; every clause provides necessary information. Front-loaded with the core action 'Get current geopolitical conflict risk probabilities' immediately establishing purpose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite lacking an output schema, the description comprehensively details the return data: specific event types (escalation, ceasefire, regime change), time horizons (1/7/30-day), and scope (6 regions). With only one optional parameter fully documented in schema, the description provides sufficient completeness for an agent to predict both input requirements and output structure.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Input schema has 100% description coverage with complete enum documentation. Description lists the 6 regions (Russia-Ukraine, etc.) which maps to enum values, but this largely repeats the schema's content. With schema coverage already comprehensive, baseline 3 is appropriate as description adds minimal semantic value beyond parameter mapping.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Description uses specific verb 'Get' with clear resource 'geopolitical conflict risk probabilities' and enumerates all 6 supported regions. It clearly distinguishes from sibling tools: 'get_maritime_traffic' (shipping) and 'get_political_events' (general politics) by specifying probabilistic conflict forecasting for specific military/political flashpoints.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly states the use case: 'Use this to assess geopolitical risk exposure for trading or risk management.' This provides clear context for when to invoke the tool. Does not explicitly name sibling alternatives, but the domain specificity (conflict probabilities vs. maritime traffic) makes differentiation clear without negative guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

get_maritime_trafficA

Get vessel counts in critical maritime chokepoints: Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea, Taiwan Strait, Arabian Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, Caribbean. Includes breakdown by vessel type (tanker, cargo, military, other). Data is a snapshot from AIS receivers (not full-day throughput). Military vessels often turn off AIS transponders so counts may underestimate. Updated daily. Use this to monitor supply chain disruption risks.

ParametersJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
zone_idNoOptional: filter to a single maritime zone.

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

No annotations provided, so description carries full burden. Excellently discloses data source (AIS receivers), temporal behavior (snapshot vs. throughput), data quality limitations (military vessels underestimate counts), and update cadence (daily). Provides critical context about data reliability that annotations would typically cover.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Six distinct sentences each serving unique purpose: purpose/scope, data breakdown, source clarification, limitation warning, update frequency, and use case. No redundancy or filler; information density is high throughout.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Lacks output schema but description compensates well by detailing return contents (vessel counts with type breakdown) and data characteristics. Missing only structural format details, but sufficiently describes the payload for effective use given the simple single-parameter input.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema has 100% coverage for the single optional parameter, establishing baseline 3. Description adds value by enumerating specific zone examples (Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea, etc.) which helps users understand valid zone_id values without being exhaustive.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Description opens with specific verb 'Get' + resource 'vessel counts' + scope 'critical maritime chokepoints' and enumerates specific zones (Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea, etc.). Clearly distinguishes from siblings get_conflict_risks and get_political_events by focusing on maritime traffic data versus political/conflict analysis.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit use case: 'Use this to monitor supply chain disruption risks.' Also implies limitations ('not full-day throughput') that guide appropriate use. Does not explicitly name sibling alternatives, but the domain distinction (maritime traffic vs conflicts/events) is clear enough for selection.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

get_political_eventsA

Get high-impact political, economic, and natural disaster events with probability estimates. Includes elections, policy changes, economic risks, and natural disasters. Each event has a probability, deadline, and confidence level. Updated daily.

ParametersJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
categoryNoOptional: filter by event category.

TDQS

A3.5/5.0
Behavior3/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With no annotations provided, the description carries the full burden. It successfully discloses data freshness ('Updated daily') and return value structure ('probability, deadline, and confidence level'), but omits operational details like error handling, rate limits, or safety characteristics.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Four sentences efficiently cover purpose, event examples, return data structure, and update frequency. Every sentence contributes distinct information without redundancy or filler.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the absence of an output schema, the description adequately compensates by detailing the return value fields (probability, deadline, confidence). For a single-parameter tool, it provides sufficient context, though explicit differentiation from conflict-risk tools would improve completeness.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the schema has 100% coverage for the single 'category' parameter, the description adds valuable semantic context by listing example event types (elections, policy changes, economic risks) that map to the enum values (political, economic, natural_disaster), clarifying what each category encompasses.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose4/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool retrieves 'high-impact political, economic, and natural disaster events' with specific examples (elections, policy changes). However, it does not explicitly differentiate from the sibling tool 'get_conflict_risks', which could conceptually overlap with political events.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines2/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides no explicit guidance on when to use this tool versus siblings like 'get_conflict_risks' or 'get_maritime_traffic'. While it characterizes the data (probability estimates, daily updates), it lacks 'when-to-use' or 'when-not-to-use' criteria.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

Tool Schema Changelog

Recent tool additions, removals, and schema changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. 3 tool updatesv0.1.0
    • First observedget_conflict_risks
    • First observedget_maritime_traffic
    • First observedget_political_events

TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation5/5

Each tool has a clearly distinct purpose: get_conflict_risks focuses on geopolitical conflict probabilities, get_maritime_traffic on vessel traffic in chokepoints, and get_political_events on broader high-impact events. There is no overlap in functionality, making it easy for an agent to select the correct tool based on the query.

Naming Consistency5/5

All tool names follow a consistent verb_noun pattern with 'get_' prefix (get_conflict_risks, get_maritime_traffic, get_political_events). This uniformity enhances predictability and readability, allowing agents to easily understand and navigate the toolset.

Tool Count3/5

With only 3 tools, the set feels thin for a server named 'Futuristic Risk Intelligence,' which implies a broader scope. While each tool is distinct, the count may be insufficient for comprehensive risk assessment, potentially limiting agent capabilities in this domain.

Completeness2/5

The toolset has significant gaps for a risk intelligence domain. It lacks tools for updating, analyzing, or managing risk data (e.g., no create, update, or delete operations), and does not cover other risk aspects like financial, cybersecurity, or environmental risks, making the surface incomplete for the stated purpose.

Maintenance

ActivityStale
ResponsivenessSyncing

Resources

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