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String Db

by io.github.pipeworx-io

Bet Research

bet_research
Read-onlyIdempotent

Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call. Pass a market slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), a polymarket.com URL, or a question text. The tool resolves the market, classifies the bet, fans out to category-specific data packs in parallel, and returns an evidence packet + simple market-vs-model comparison. Use for "should I bet on X", "what does the data say about Y", or "is there edge in Z". CLASSIFIERS: crypto_price, fed_rate, geopolitical, sports, sports_championship, drug_approval, election_candidate, tech_launch, space_launch, corporate, corporate_earnings, corporate_event, public_figure_speech, weather, other. FAN-OUT EXAMPLES: BTC bet → coingecko + fred + gdelt+gnews; Fed bet → fred (DFEDTARU + EFFR + CPIAUCSL) + kalshi_macro (KXFED implied probs) + recent_fed_actions (federal-register rules, last 365d); Hormuz bet → imf_portwatch + airspace + gdelt; Yankees WS → mlb_stats_standings + parent_event partition + news; hottest-year bet → climate_projection_nyc + gistemp_latest (NASA global anomaly, rank since 1880) + news; NVDA-vs-AAPL → finnhub get_quote + edgar shares-outstanding (derived market cap) + edgar filings + news. RESPONSE SHAPES: result.market carries best_bid/best_ask/spread_pp/liquidity/price_change_1h/1d/1w; result.analysis carries model_probability/edge_pp/kelly_fraction_half when a closed-form model fires PLUS a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h, comparable to model edge — your edge may already be priced in") when relevant; result.evidence is keyed by source. RESOLVER CONTRACT: result.market_match_confidence ∈ {high, medium, low, none}, market_match_score (0-1 token-overlap), market_match_alternatives[] (other candidate markets the resolver considered), and suggestions[] (explicit re-query hints when the match is fuzzy) — ALWAYS inspect these before trusting the analysis block, because medium/low matches can still surface other fields. PARENT_EVENT EXTRACTOR: when the bet is one leg of a partition (Yankees WS, Romania election), result.parent_event{matched_candidate, top_legs_by_price[], partition_size, placeholders_filtered} gives you the peer prices in one place — that's the headline for elections/championships. NEWS FIELDS: news entries carry _fallback_attempted / _fallback_failed_reason / retry_after_sec when GDELT 429s and GNews backfill ran or failed. SAFETY: low-confidence resolutions short-circuit with status:"low_confidence_match" and suppress analysis fields so agents can't accidentally size on phantom matches. Closed/dead markets that ARE still indexed by Polymarket (yes_price≈0, no volume, no liquidity) return status:"market_closed_or_inactive" and skip fan-out. In practice resolved markets are usually de-indexed and instead surface via the low_confidence_match path above — both routes are BLOCKING, just different mechanisms. Wide-spread markets (>10pp) carry tradeability:"illiquid_wide_spread" + an explanatory note. RESOLUTION-RULE RISK: market.cancellation_rule parses the void/postponement settlement out of the resolution text — refund_50_50 (shares settle flat 50¢ on void; EV-material for any entry away from 50¢, with ev_impact quantified), resolves_no_on_cancel, resolves_yes_on_cancel, carries_to_reschedule, or mentioned_unclear. null means the description never mentions cancellation. Check this before sizing sports/esports/event-occurrence bets — audited arb-bot ledgers show flat-50¢ void settlements are a recurring pure-rules loss.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
depthNoquick = 2-3 evidence sources, thorough = full fan-out. Default thorough.
marketYesPolymarket slug ("will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"), full URL ("https://polymarket.com/event/..."), or question text ("Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30?")
include_rawNoDefault false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • changedInput schema / examples
      Previous value: -[
-  {
-    "market_input": "will fed cut rates in june 2026"
-  },
-  {
-    "market_input": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
-  }
-]New value: +[
+  {
+    "market": "will-bitcoin-reach-100k-in-july-2026"
+  },
+  {
+    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
+  }
+]
  2. Changed2 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / examples
      Added value: +[
+  {
+    "market_input": "will fed cut rates in june 2026"
+  },
+  {
+    "market_input": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026"
+  }
+]
    • addedInput schema / properties / include_raw
      Added value: +{
+  "description": "Default false. When false (recommended), FRED/FDA/GDELT/Federal-Register evidence is summarized to the few fields agents actually use — keeps responses under ~20KB. Pass true to get full upstream payloads (50KB-500KB) when you need to recompute deltas, cite specific observations, or post-process.",
+  "type": "boolean"
+}
  3. Added

TDQS

A4.7/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the annotations (readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint), the description richly discloses runtime behavior: low-confidence matches short-circuit and suppress analysis, closed markets return a specific status, wide spreads carry tradeability flags, and resolution-rule risks (e.g., refund_50_50) are surfaced. It even explains fallback news sources and retry behavior. No contradiction with annotations exists; instead, it adds substantial operational detail.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long, but it is heavily structured with clear headers (CLASSIFIERS, FAN-OUT EXAMPLES, RESPONSE SHAPES, etc.) and every section conveys necessary operational details. The front-loading is effective: the first sentence states the purpose, and later sections expand on edge cases. It could arguably be tightened, but the density is justified given the tool's complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description must explain the return structure, and it does so thoroughly: `result.market`, `result.analysis`, `result.evidence`, resolver contract fields, parent event extraction, news fields, and safety statuses. It also specifies blocking behaviors and edge cases (closed markets, low-confidence matches), making the tool's behavior fully predictable for an agent. Given the complexity and absence of an output schema, this description is exceptionally complete.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

While the input schema already describes all three parameters (100% coverage), the description adds essential meaning beyond the schema. It explains the flexible input formats for `market` (slug, URL, or question text), the practical difference between `depth` quick vs thorough with example source counts, and the `include_raw` trade-off in response size. This contextual enrichment goes far beyond the schema's baseline.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific, action-oriented statement: "Research a Polymarket bet by pulling the relevant Pipeworx data for it in one call." This clearly identifies the tool's purpose (researching a single bet), the resource (Polymarket market), and the mechanism (fetching Pipeworx data). It also distinguishes itself from siblings focused on broader tasks like polymarket_edges or polymarket_arbitrage by emphasizing per-bet research and evidence synthesis.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit use cases: "Use for 'should I bet on X', 'what does the data say about Y', or 'is there edge in Z'." This tells the agent when to invoke the tool. It does not explicitly name alternative tools or list when-not-to-use, but the context is clear enough to avoid misuse, especially with the blocking safety paths described later.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.2/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, deep_research, discover_tools, and suggest_questions all route to the same underlying data catalog. The six polymarket_* tools also blur together (edges, arbitrage, edge_tracker, fill_risk, kalshi_spread), and resolve vs resolve_entity is an outright collision an agent will likely misselect.

Naming Consistency3/5

There is a solid verb_noun core (list_subscriptions, scan_dependency, validate_claim, suggest_questions, compare_entities) but it is mixed with bare nouns (enrichment, homology, interactions, network) and product-prefixed names (pipeworx_feedback, polymarket_edges, ask_pipeworx). No single consistent pattern holds across the set, though the clusters are internally predictable.

Tool Count2/5

At 36 tools this is well above the 25+ threshold for 'too many,' and the sprawl is not justified by a single coherent domain—prediction markets, bioinformatics, brand visibility, npm scanning, and subscription management are jammed together. The count makes the tool surface hard to navigate even with good descriptions.

Completeness4/5

Within each major cluster the lifecycle feels covered: memory (remember/recall/forget), subscriptions (subscribe/unsubscribe/list/recent_alerts), STRING-DB (resolve/homology/interactions/network/enrichment), and Polymarket analysis (scan/edge/arb/fill-risk/track) all form reasonably complete workflows. The main gap is that the server attempts so many domains that none is exhaustively deep, but there are no critical dead ends.

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