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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, and non-destructive nature. The description adds rich behavioral details: monotonicity checks, partition-sum checks, semantic anchors, partition filters, and fill check using live CLOB depth. There is no contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured with clear sections for each mode and additional details like fill check. However, it is quite lengthy and could be slightly more concise without losing essential information. Still, every sentence adds value.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (two modes, multiple checks), the description is remarkably complete. It covers the response structure (opportunities array, partition_check object), fill check details, and edge cases like low similarity. No output schema exists, but the description adequately explains return values.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Both parameters (event and topic) are described in detail, including example values, behavior differences, and even that full Polymarket URLs are accepted for event. Schema description coverage is 100%, and the description adds significant meaning beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It specifies the resource (Polymarket arbitrage) and distinguishes between event and topic modes, providing a strong sense of what the tool does.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit guidance on when to use each mode: event mode for a specific market (recommended), topic mode for cross-event scanning. It also explains the benefits of cross-event mode ('catches ... patterns that single-event misses') and gives examples of argument values.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several clusters overlap significantly: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all serve general data-query purposes, and entity_profile, compare_entities, recent_changes, and validate_claim pull from the same SEC/news/data sources in similar ways. The semver utilities are distinct, but they sit alongside unrelated prediction-market, memory, subscription, and AI-visibility tools that make the overall boundary of each tool much fuzzier.

Naming Consistency3/5

Some tools follow a clean verb_noun pattern (parse_semver, compare_semver, compare_entities, resolve_entity), but others are noun phrases (entity_profile, polymarket_edges, recent_changes) or branded/verb-first names (ask_pipeworx, deep_research, bet_research, pipeworx_trending). The mix is readable but inconsistent, with no unifying convention across the 34 tools.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is too many for a server named Semver, whose actual semver-related surface is only a few utilities. Even viewed as a broad data platform, the count is heavy and padded with unrelated capabilities like prediction-market arbitrage, memory storage, subscriptions, and AI-visibility checks that do not belong together in one server.

Completeness2/5

As a Semver server it covers parse, compare, and range satisfaction but lacks obvious operations like version bumping/incrementing or validating a version list, making the core surface incomplete. As a general data platform the domain is unclear and the unusual mix of semver, market, memory, and marketing tools prevents any coherent completeness assessment.