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Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed2 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / max_spread_pp
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Tradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_liquidity
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Tradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
  2. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_partition_leg_kelly
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Minimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
  3. Changed4 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / category_filter
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Comma-separated list to restrict the output: \"model_driven\" (crypto_price + news_momentum), \"structural_arbitrage\" (partition_overround), \"concentrated_longshot\". Combine like \"model_driven,structural_arbitrage\". Default: all.",
      +  "type": "string"
      +}
    • changedInput schema / properties / min_edge_pp / description
      Previous value: -"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5)."New value: +"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage."
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_kelly
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Minimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
    • addedInput schema / properties / slippage_pp
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Assumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
  4. Added

TDQS

A4.4/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description provides exhaustive detail on the five model families, response segments, edge calculations, slippage handling, caching behavior (1h KV), and diagnostics. It goes far beyond the annotations, fully disclosing what the tool does without any contradiction.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is well-structured with clear sections for model families, response segments, and knobs. However, it is rather verbose with extensive algorithmic detail (e.g., per-sport alpha values) that may be excessive for an agent. Still, it avoids redundancy and is front-loaded with purpose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully covers the response structure (by_segment with three categories, diagnostics, Fed note, etc.) and the attributes of each opportunity. All 9 parameters are described in the schema, and the description ties them together holistically. The description is sufficient for an agent to understand inputs, behavior, and outputs.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% and the schema descriptions are already detailed. The tool description adds context by grouping parameters into 'Tradeable-edge knobs' and explaining how they interact (e.g., min_liquidity and max_spread_pp filter realizable edges). This enhances understanding beyond the schema alone.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: scanning top Polymarket markets for opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. It highlights the intended use case 'what should I bet on today' and distinguishes itself from siblings like polymarket_arbitrage by focusing on top markets and specific model segments.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines3/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description mentions the tool is built for daily betting decisions and that it avoids paging through hundreds of markets, but it does not explicitly state when to use this tool versus alternative tools like polymarket_arbitrage or polymarket_edge_tracker. Usage context is implied but not clearly differentiated.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Several tools occupy overlapping semantic space: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta (currently identical), and ask_pipeworx_grounded are the same router in different modes, while suggest_questions and discover_tools both serve capability discovery. The detailed descriptions help, but an agent could easily select the wrong entry point, especially among the prediction-market and router variants.

Naming Consistency4/5

All tool names use lowercase snake_case and mostly follow a verb_noun pattern (fetch_schema, resolve_entity, validate_claim), with some domain-prefixed nouns (polymarket_edges, pipeworx_trending) and a few adjective_noun outliers (recent_alerts, recent_changes). The convention is consistent and predictable, with only minor deviations.

Tool Count2/5

At 35 tools, the set is far too large for a server named Schemastore — only four tools relate to the schema catalog while the rest form a sprawling data-research, prediction-market, memory, and subscription platform. The count is heavy and the scope feels unfocused.

Completeness3/5

The broad data-research and prediction-market domain is well covered — lookup, compare, validate, research, arbitrage, subscriptions, and memory all have lifecycle support — but the server's namesake purpose (schema catalog) is thinly served by four read-only tools with no way to contribute or manage schemas. The domain mismatch makes the surface feel both over- and under-complete.