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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond annotations (readOnly, openWorld, idempotent, non-destructive), the description discloses key behavioral traits: the 3pp deviation threshold, placeholder filtering with 20% cap, Jaccard similarity ≥0.30, and the fill check cautioning that realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the arb is not tradable. This is rich, safety-relevant context that annotations alone do not provide.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Although long, the description is tightly structured with labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and no filler. Each sentence adds operational guidance, and the core function is front-loaded. The length is justified by the tool's multifaceted behavior.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description explicitly defines the response shape (opportunities[] with fields, partition_check with sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, etc.) and covers edge cases like skipped_low_similarity, placeholders_filtered, and realizable_edge. It is self-sufficient for an agent to invoke and interpret results.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

The schema provides good descriptions for both parameters, but the tool description adds operational depth—'event' mode 'walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check', while 'topic' mode 'searches related events...flattens markets'. This significantly exceeds the schema's one-liners and clarifies how each parameter changes behavior.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb+resource ('Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket') and immediately distinguishes itself from siblings by naming the two detection mechanisms (monotonicity violations, partition-sum checks). It also clearly differentiates the three invocation modes (trending_scan, event, topic), leaving no ambiguity about what the tool does.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Explicitly instructs when to use each mode: no args for trending_scan, event for a specific market, topic for cross-event scanning. It also names an alternative tool ('For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk') and explains why cross-event mode is useful ('catches ...by May 31 vs ...by Jun 30 patterns'). This is exemplary usage guidance.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are nearly identical in purpose, and structure/summary both fetch PDB entries. The server name 'Rcsb Pdb' doesn't match most tools, which are Pipeworx data tools, compounding ambiguity.

Naming Consistency3/5

Mostly snake_case verb_noun, but verbs are inconsistent (ask, discover, generate, list, recall) and some names are noun phrases (entity_profile, polymarket_edges). No clear pattern unifies the set.

Tool Count2/5

37 tools is excessive for a server ostensibly about RCSB PDB; only 6 tools relate to PDB while 31 serve unrelated Pipeworx functionality. The count feels like a bundled grab-bag rather than a focused toolset.

Completeness3/5

The PDB-specific tools cover the core operations (search, fetch, assembly, ligand, polymer entity), so the structural biology surface is mostly complete. However, the server's overall purpose is muddled, and the Pipeworx tools are a separate domain that happens to be bundled in, making it unclear what 'completeness' even means for this server.