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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description goes well beyond annotations by disclosing key behavioral traits: the partition filter that drops placeholder slugs, the 'skipped_low_similarity' surface for rejected pairs, and the fill check that prices signals against live CLOB depth with a warning not to trade when realizable_edge_pp <= 0. No contradiction with the readOnly/idempotent annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is dense but every sentence earns its place. It is well-structured with clear mode breakdowns (trending_scan, event, topic), semantic anchor, partition filter, response format, and fill check. No fluff or repetition; front-loaded with the core purpose.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite having no output schema, the description fully explains the response structure: 'opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{...}.' It also covers edge cases (thin legs, similar pairs) and provides a pointer to a related tool for custom sizing, making it complete for an agent to invoke correctly.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although schema coverage is 100%, the description adds substantial semantic value: it explains that `event` accepts full Polymarket URLs, gives concrete slug examples ('fed-decision-may-2026'), and clarifies that `topic` is for cross-event scanning with seed question examples. This goes far beyond the schema's parameter descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description explicitly states the tool's function: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It uses a specific verb ('Find') and resource ('Polymarket'), and clearly distinguishes between its three modes (trending_scan, event, topic). This differentiates it from sibling tools like polymarket_fill_risk, which is mentioned as an alternative for custom sizing.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit 'when to use' guidance: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan... pass `event` for the strongest per-event partition_check, or `topic` for a themed cross-event scan.' It also provides a clear alternative: 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.' This is more than sufficient to guide an agent.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are variants of the same router, and the six polymarket_* tools cover overlapping arbitrage/edge analysis territory. ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence and discover_tools vs suggest_questions add further boundary ambiguity. While descriptions try to differentiate, an agent could easily misselect among these clusters.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most names are readable snake_case, but there is no consistent verb_noun pattern: verbs vary (ask, get, list, scan, search, suggest, validate, generate, compare) and several tools are named by product prefix (pipeworx_*, polymarket_*) rather than by action. The pattern is predictable within clusters but inconsistent across the set.

Tool Count2/5

33 tools is heavy for the server's stated name, 'Metals Api', which only has two metals-related tools (get_historical, get_latest). Even as a general data-research server, the surface is bloated with memory utilities, subscription management, feedback, trending, and unrelated AI-visibility scanning. The scope mismatch makes the count feel unjustified.

Completeness3/5

The core metals domain is thin: latest and single-date historical prices exist, but there is no time-series range query, no list of supported metals, and no explicit currency conversion endpoint. The broader data-research/subscription/memory surface is relatively complete, but it is disconnected from the server's apparent purpose, leaving notable gaps for a metals-focused agent.