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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Beyond the readOnlyHint and idempotentHint annotations, the description adds critical behavioral details: the >3pp deviation threshold for signals, the placeholder filter (>20% returns null), and the fill check warning that realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means 'do not trade it'. These go far beyond the structured annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-organized with internal labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). Every sentence conveys necessary operational detail; while dense, it avoids fluff. A slightly more scannable layout would push it to 5.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description compensates by specifying the response shape (opportunities[], partition_check fields, fill check outputs like theoretical_edge_pp_at_book). It also documents edge cases like low-similarity rejection and placeholder throttling. For a tool of this complexity, the description is fully complete.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Although the schema descriptions for event and topic are useful, the tool description significantly expands on them with concrete examples ('fed-decision-may-2026'), explains what each mode does internally (walks child markets, runs comparator on union), and clarifies the difference between modes. This adds substantial meaning beyond the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with a specific verb and resource: 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' It clearly distinguishes this tool from siblings like polymarket_edges and polymarket_fill_risk by focusing on partition sums and cross-event comparisons.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

It provides explicit guidance for each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan...', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', and 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'. It also names an alternative for related functionality: 'For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.'

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool clusters are hard to distinguish: the four ask_pipeworx variants overlap heavily (beta currently behaves identically to ask_pipeworx, and grounded shares routing), and the half-dozen prediction-market tools (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edge_tracker, polymarket_fill_risk, polymarket_kalshi_spread) have fuzzy boundaries. Memory and markdown utilities are clear, but the overlapping data-query and prediction-market clusters create real misselection risk.

Naming Consistency4/5

Names are almost uniformly snake_case and mostly verb-first (ask_, compare_, extract_, scan_, validate_, remember, forget), which is predictable. Minor deviations like entity_profile, recent_changes, and polymarket_edges are noun-first but still follow the same lowercase_snake pattern, so no chaotic mixing of conventions exists.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is heavy for a server seemingly named 'Markdown', especially when the majority are actually Pipeworx data-research and prediction-market tools. Several tools duplicate or wrap each other (ask_pipeworx_beta, scan_competitor_ai_presence, bet_research et al.), so the count feels bloated; it is not as extreme as 50+, but it exceeds a well-scoped set.

Completeness4/5

Within the actual dominant domain — structured data research plus prediction markets — the surface is broad: routing queries, grounded answers, deep research, entity profiles, comparisons, resolution, claim validation, semantic search, discoverability, subscriptions/alerts, and memory are all covered. Minor gaps exist (e.g. no direct pipeworx:// citation-fetch tool, and markdown support is thin), but the core workflows have no dead ends.

Resources