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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations declare readOnlyHint, openWorldHint, idempotentHint, destructiveHint. Description adds detailed behavioral context: monotonicity violation detection, partition checks, Jaccard similarity anchor, placeholders filter, fill check against CLOB depth. Explains when not to trade. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

Description is relatively long but well-structured and front-loaded with main purpose. Every sentence provides value. Minor opportunity to combine some sentences for brevity, but overall concise given the complexity.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

No output schema, but description thoroughly explains return structure: 'opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context)' and partition_check fields. Covers all modes, fill check, and references sibling tool for custom sizing. Complete for a complex arbitrage detection tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema has 100% coverage with descriptions for both parameters. Description adds significant meaning: explains each mode's semantics with examples (e.g., 'fed-decision-may-2026'), cross-event scanning behavior, and additional context like 'Full Polymarket URLs also accepted'. Goes well beyond schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

Clearly states 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks.' Specifies verb+resource+method. Distinguishes three input modes (no args, event, topic), differentiating from sibling tools effectively.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

Provides explicit when-to-use guidance for each mode: 'Call with NO args for a trending_scan', 'event (recommended for a specific market)', 'topic (for cross-event scanning)'. Explains cross-event mode catches patterns single-event misses. Includes fill check advice and references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Multiple tools have unclear boundaries. ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all route natural-language queries to the same underlying catalog, with ask_pipeworx_beta currently documented as identical to ask_pipeworx. The Polymarket family (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_fill_risk) also overlaps in purpose, leaving an agent to parse fine-grained differences before selecting.

Naming Consistency3/5

All tool names use snake_case and several share recognizable prefixes (ask_pipeworx_*, polymarket_*), which helps readability. However, the verb/noun order is inconsistent—compare_entities vs entity_profile, bet_research vs deep_research, scan_competitor_ai_presence vs ai_visibility_check—and bare verbs like remember, forget, and subscribe mix with noun-first names.

Tool Count2/5

32 tools is well above the 25-tool threshold for a coherent set. The bloat is worse because the server is named 'Jwt' but only one tool relates to JWT; the rest cover unrelated domains such as data routing, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, and npm scanning, so the count is neither scoped to the server's name nor internally cohesive.

Completeness2/5

For a server named 'Jwt', the surface is severely incomplete: only decode_jwt is present, with no sign, verify, encode, or refresh tools, so common JWT workflows dead-end. Even when judged as a general Pipeworx data toolkit, the mismatch between the server name and the actual tool surface creates a significant gap for agents expecting JWT functionality.