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Polymarket–Kalshi Spread

polymarket_kalshi_spread
Read-onlyIdempotent

Cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. The two venues sometimes price the same outcome 2-25pp apart because their participant pools differ — when the bet shapes are equivalent that delta is a real signal, when they aren't the tool says so. TWO MODES: (1) topic — 10 pre-mapped macro shortcuts ("fed", "btc", "cpi", "gdp", "sp500", "recession", "next_pope", "next_uk_pm", "next_israel_pm", "2028_president") auto-fetch the matching event on each venue. (2) explicit kalshi_event_ticker + polymarket_event_slug for custom pairings — BOTH modes run the identical token-overlap matcher, so the same disclosures apply to both. RESPONSE: each venue's leg-by-leg prices (raw probability 0-1) plus matched spread[].top_spreads_pp (Kalshi − Polymarket) where the same outcome shows up on both sides. SAFETY FIELDS: compatibility_warning is a sentence and compatibility_codes[] the machine-readable form; BOTH can be non-empty on returned pairs, so read them even when matched_pairs>0. Codes: event_subject_mismatch (the two event titles share no subject words — probably not the same question), temporal_mismatch (they resolve in different months), temporal_alignment_unknown (the resolution month could not be parsed on one or both sides — NOT the same as confirmed-aligned; check each event's close/strike date yourself), non_equivalent_bet_shapes, no_candidate_pairs, unclassified_legs_excluded, pairing_unverified (set in EITHER mode whenever pairs are returned: the legs were matched by keyword and word overlap, not a shared resolution source). Each entry in top_spreads_pp carries its own flags[] (temporal_mismatch, temporal_alignment_unknown, event_subject_mismatch, low_token_overlap). A leg whose metric_type or match_subtype is "unknown" is NEVER paired — those comparisons land in spread.skipped_unclassified and, when the wording lined up, in spread.low_confidence_pairs[] for inspection only. temporal_alignment{polymarket_month,kalshi_month,aligned} tells you whether the two events resolve in the same calendar period, in EITHER mode; null means it could not be computed (see temporal_alignment_unknown), not that the two sides align. spread.fees_note is a standing disclosure: Kalshi charges per-contract trading fees, Polymarket does not, and this tool does not model Kalshi's fee schedule — every spread_pp is gross, not a net tradeable edge. skipped_cross_type / skipped_cross_subtype counters expose how many leg-pair comparisons were dropped (cross-type = metric_type mismatch like MoM vs YoY; cross-subtype = inequality mismatch like cum_ge vs cum_le). Real cross-venue spreads are rarer than the macro-shortcut list suggests — most pre-mapped topics return compatibility_warning today; pre-mapped ≠ tradeable.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
topicNoPre-mapped: fed | btc | cpi | gdp | sp500 | recession | next_pope | next_uk_pm | next_israel_pm | 2028_president
kalshi_event_tickerNoExplicit Kalshi event ticker, e.g. "KXFED-26OCT". Overrides the topic-mapped Kalshi side.
polymarket_event_slugNoExplicit Polymarket event slug, e.g. "fed-decision-in-june-825". Overrides the topic-mapped Polymarket side.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations already mark the tool as read-only and idempotent, but the description goes far beyond that: it discloses compatibility codes, non-equivalent bet shapes, unclassified leg handling, fee-schedule limitations, and skipped comparison counters. It even explains that returned pairs carry flags that should be read even when matched_pairs > 0. No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but densely informative and well-organized with labeled sections (TWO MODES, RESPONSE, SAFETY FIELDS, Codes). It earns most of its length given the tool's complexity and the absence of an output schema. Some minor redundancy exists around temporal alignment, where the null meaning is explained twice.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description must carry the full burden of explaining return values, and it does: it covers top_spreads_pp, compatibility fields, skipped_unclassified, low_confidence_pairs, temporal_alignment, fees_note, and skipped counters. It also provides practical context about when pre-mapped topics return warnings, which is essential for correct interpretation.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100%, so baseline is 3; the description adds genuine value by explaining the semantics of `topic` as pre-mapped shortcuts and by clarifying that explicit ticker/slug override the mapped side. It also states that both modes run the same matching logic, which is not inferable from the schema alone.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The opening sentence states a specific operation: measuring the cross-venue spread between Kalshi and Polymarket for the same resolving question. This clearly distinguishes it from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage, which targets arbitrage, and polymarket_edges, which focuses on single-venue edges. The two modes are named and scoped precisely.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives explicit usage context: it introduces the `topic` shortcut mode, the explicit ticker/slug mode, and clarifies that explicit parameters override the topic-mapped side. It also warns when not to treat output as tradeable, but it does not explicitly name when to use a sibling tool instead, so it falls short of a full 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.8/5.0
Disambiguation3/5

Many tools are clearly distinct, but the existence of multiple ask_pipeworx variants (standard, beta, grounded) and the overlapping check_risk/lookup_ip tools create meaningful selection ambiguity. Description differentiation helps but doesn't fully resolve it.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names use snake_case, but conventions vary between verb-noun (lookup_ip, compare_entities), noun phrases (entity_profile, recent_alerts), and domain-prefixed names (polymarket_edges, pipeworx_trending). It's readable but not a consistent pattern.

Tool Count2/5

At 33 tools the surface is large, with duplicated ask_pipeworx variants, a modest IP lookup core, and a large number of meta/management tools (memory, subscriptions, onboarding, feedback). Even with a broad scope this feels overloaded, and it is well above the 25+ threshold.

Completeness4/5

The query domain is well covered: entity profiles, comparison, claim validation, deep research, changes, plus memory and subscription management. Minor gaps exist (no direct subscription update, no raw citation fetch utility), but agents can work around them.