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Glama

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed2 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / max_spread_pp
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Tradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_liquidity
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Tradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
  2. Changed1 schema field changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_partition_leg_kelly
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Minimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
  3. Changed4 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / properties / category_filter
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Comma-separated list to restrict the output: \"model_driven\" (crypto_price + news_momentum), \"structural_arbitrage\" (partition_overround), \"concentrated_longshot\". Combine like \"model_driven,structural_arbitrage\". Default: all.",
      +  "type": "string"
      +}
    • changedInput schema / properties / min_edge_pp / description
      Previous value: -"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5)."New value: +"Minimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage."
    • addedInput schema / properties / min_kelly
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Minimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
    • addedInput schema / properties / slippage_pp
      Added value: +{
      +  "description": "Assumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.",
      +  "type": "number"
      +}
  4. Added

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses extensive behavioral traits not covered by annotations (readOnlyHint, etc.), such as caching behavior ('Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs'), detailed model families and their properties, diagnostics provided ('_diagnostics so callers can see WHY a segment is empty'), and edge case handling (Fed bets excluded, partitions with >20% placeholder skipped). No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is quite lengthy and dense with technical details about models and segments. While it is front-loaded with the purpose, the extensive detail may be overwhelming and could be more concise for efficient agent parsing.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (9 parameters, no output schema), the description covers all necessary aspects: model families, response segments, diagnostics, caching, knobs for filtering, and edge cases. It provides a complete picture for an AI agent to understand and use the tool effectively.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters3/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% with each parameter having a description in the input schema. The description adds context by referring to parameters as 'knobs' and grouping them (e.g., 'tradeable-edge knobs'), but does not provide significant new meaning beyond the schema's own descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description begins with 'Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price', which clearly states the verb (scan/return), resource (Polymarket markets), and its unique value proposition (disagreement detection). This distinguishes it from sibling tools like polymarket_arbitrage by its specific focus on Pipeworx disagreement.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly states it is 'Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets', providing a clear use case. However, it does not explicitly mention when not to use this tool or suggest alternatives for other polymarket-related tasks.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

B3.4/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tools have heavily overlapping purposes: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, ask_pipeworx_grounded, and deep_research all route factual questions to the same underlying catalog with unclear boundaries. Polymarket tools also overlap (bet_research, polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage), and ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence are nearly the same operation.

Naming Consistency3/5

Most tools follow a readable snake_case verb_noun pattern (ask_pipeworx, entity_profile, resolve_entity, list_subscriptions). However, the set mixes two distinct naming families — ic_* for Intercom tools and pipeworx/* for the rest — and includes ambiguous generic names like remember/recall/forget that don't visually connect to the rest.

Tool Count2/5

36 tools is far more than needed for an Intercom-focused server; the vast majority have nothing to do with Intercom and instead cover a sprawling Pipeworx data-research, prediction-market, and memory/subscription toolkit. The count alone is in the 'too many' range, and the scope mismatch makes it feel even more inflated.

Completeness2/5

For a server named Intercom, the surface is severely incomplete: only read/list/search operations exist for contacts and conversations, with no create, update, delete, send-message, or company-detail operations. The unrelated Pipeworx tools are fairly broad, but they don't compensate for the missing Intercom lifecycle coverage that the server name promises.