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Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.9/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations indicate readOnlyHint and idempotentHint, consistent with description. Description adds critical behavioral details: semantic anchor (Jaccard similarity), partition filter (placeholder slugs), fill check against live book depth, and response structure. No contradictions.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is densely packed with useful information, front-loaded with main purpose and modes, and well-structured with labeled sections (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK). Slightly verbose but every sentence adds value, earning a 4.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Despite no output schema, the description explains the response structure in detail (opportunities[], partition_check, fill_check fields). It covers edge cases like low similarity rejection, partition filter, and fill check results, making it complete for an advisory tool.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema coverage is 100% (both parameters described), but the description adds significant meaning: the event parameter accepts full URLs and slugs, the topic parameter uses seed questions, and explains how each mode operates. This goes well beyond the schema's basic descriptions.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool finds arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket using monotonicity violations and partition-sum checks, with specific modes (no args, event, topic) and explains each. It distinguishes itself from sibling tools by detailing its unique functionality.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description explicitly guides when to use each mode: trending scan with no args, single-event with event slug, cross-event with topic. It also warns against trading when fill_check shows unrealizable edges and references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A4/5.0
Disambiguation4/5

Most tools have distinct purposes, but ask_pipeworx and ask_pipeworx_grounded overlap in routing (differ only in answer mode), and the multiple Polymarket tools (bet_research, polymarket_arbitrage, polymarket_edges, polymarket_kalshi_spread) could cause confusion without careful reading of descriptions.

Naming Consistency3/5

Naming mix of verb-first (ask_pipeworx, compare_entities) and noun-first (entity_profile, recent_changes) patterns. Most use snake_case consistently, but the pattern is not uniform—some tools are commands, others are descriptors. Notable deviations like 'pipeworx_feedback' and 'pmc' are missing here but the sample shows inconsistency.

Tool Count3/5

30 tools is on the high side, but the server covers a broad domain (data lookup, betting, AI, genomics, memory). Some tools could be merged (e.g., ask_pipeworx and its grounded variant), and the betting subdomain feels over-instrumented. The count is borderline between appropriate and heavy.

Completeness3/5

The server provides a wide range of operations for its diverse domains, but gaps exist: the genomics tools only offer basic metadata search (no download/analysis), and the betting tools lack historical data or backtesting. It covers common patterns but with notable omissions for a cohesive experience.