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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Edges

polymarket_edges
Read-onlyIdempotent

Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price. Built for "what should I bet on today" — agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets. FIVE MODEL FAMILIES grouped into three response segments under by_segment: (1) MODEL_DRIVEN — crypto_price (lognormal barrier from 90d FRED log-returns) and news_momentum (GDELT 7d/21d article-volume ratio, soft signal w/ halved Kelly). (2) STRUCTURAL_ARBITRAGE — partition_overround on mutually-exclusive events; per-leg favorite-longshot bias correction with per-sport α (tennis 1.02, soccer 1.10, MMA 1.15, default 1.0); placeholder-slug filter drops will-person-X / will-team-Y / will-manager-Z / will-someone-else- backstops; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction skipped entirely. (3) CONCENTRATED_LONGSHOT — basket trade when one leg ≥75% AND ≥2 longshots ≤8% AND portfolio return ≥25:1; rare-by-design (gates relaxed Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1). EVERY OPPORTUNITY carries edge_pp_net (after slippage), kelly_fraction + kelly_fraction_half (capped at 0.25), market.liquidity, market.spread_pp, market.volume, plus a 24h-move warning ("Market moved X.Xpp in 24h") when the recent move alone exceeds the edge — your edge may already be in the price. TRADEABLE-EDGE KNOBS: min_liquidity / max_spread_pp drop opportunities where edge isn't realizable; min_partition_leg_kelly filters partitions by best per-leg Kelly. RESPONSE TOP-LEVEL: by_segment{model_driven,structural_arbitrage,concentrated_longshot}, fed_candidates/fed_note (Fed bets surface here, excluded from ranking — 1m-T vs EFFR signal is unreliable at meeting-month horizons without paid OIS/SOFR-futures data), and _diagnostics{concentrated_longshot:{...funnel counters},category_counts,filter_skips} so callers can see WHY a segment is empty (top-N stale, all candidates failed gates, knob dropped them). Cached 1h at the KV level keyed on all knobs.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
limitNoTop N edges to return after ranking. Default 10, max 25.
windowNoPolymarket volume window to filter markets. Default 1wk.
min_kellyNoMinimum half-Kelly fraction (as decimal, e.g. 0.005 = 0.5% of bankroll) to include single-leg opportunities. Default 0 (no filter). Skips opportunities that are too small to bet sensibly even if the edge is large.
min_edge_ppNoMinimum |edge| in percentage points to include (default 0.5). Edge is evaluated NET of slippage.
slippage_ppNoAssumed execution slippage in percentage points per leg (default 0.3). Subtracted from raw |edge| before ranking and Kelly sizing. Polymarket has zero trading fees as of 2024 but bid/ask + thin depth typically eats 20-50bp per trade. Bump for very thin partitions; drop to 0 if you have a smarter fill model.
max_spread_ppNoTradeable-edge filter. Maximum bid/ask spread in percentage points on the representative market. Default null (no filter). Set to 2 to require tight books — anything wider eats most plausible edges.
min_liquidityNoTradeable-edge filter. Minimum $ liquidity on the representative market (or for partition_overround, on at least one top_leg). Default 0 (no filter). Set to 5000 to drop thin-book opportunities where executing the edge would walk the book past breakeven.
category_filterNoComma-separated list to restrict the output: "model_driven" (crypto_price + news_momentum), "structural_arbitrage" (partition_overround), "concentrated_longshot". Combine like "model_driven,structural_arbitrage". Default: all.
min_partition_leg_kellyNoMinimum BEST per-leg half-Kelly fraction across a partition_overround opportunity's top_legs (or longshot_basket legs). Default 0 (no filter). Partition arbs always return kelly_fraction_half=0 at the parent level by design (basket trades don't compose to single-leg Kelly), so min_kelly never filters them — this knob applies to the per-leg Kelly inside top_legs instead. Use to suppress thin partitions whose individual leg edges aren't worth the per-leg slippage cost.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. First observed

TDQS

A4.6/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

Annotations establish read-only, idempotent, non-destructive behavior, but the description adds substantial context beyond that: 1-hour KV caching keyed on knobs, segment-level responses, diagnostics for empty segments, Fed-signal reliability caveats, and edge calculation details (slippage, Kelly caps, 24h-move warnings). No contradiction with annotations.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness3/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is front-loaded and organized with labeled sections, but it is very long and includes non-essential implementation minutiae such as per-sport alpha values and specific gate changes ('Run 8 from prior 85%/5%/50:1'). It reads more like a behavioral specification than a concise tool doc, so it does not earn a 4 or 5.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description carries the full burden of explaining return values and does so thoroughly: it lists top-level response fields (by_segment, fed_candidates/fed_note, _diagnostics), explains why segments can be empty, documents edge fields, and notes caching behavior. For the complexity of the tool, the operational context is complete.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Even though schema description coverage is 100%, the description layers meaningful context onto the parameters: min_liquidity/max_spread_pp as tradeable-edge filters, min_partition_leg_kelly's special per-leg behavior, and slippage being netted before ranking/Kelly. This goes well beyond the baseline provided by the schema.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The first sentence states a specific action ('Scan top Polymarket markets and return opportunities where Pipeworx data disagrees with market price') and names the exact resource and output. It also frames the use case as 'what should I bet on today', which clearly distinguishes it from generic market queries or arbitration-specific siblings.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives clear usage context ('agents discover opportunities without paging hundreds of markets') and explains what knobs adjust. It does not explicitly contrast with sibling tools or state when not to use it, so it lacks the when-not/alternatives detail needed for a 5.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.9/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Several tool clusters are near-duplicates or easy to confuse: ask_pipeworx, ask_pipeworx_beta, and ask_pipeworx_grounded are nearly identical (beta currently matches stable exactly), while polymarket_edges, polymarket_arbitrage, and bet_research all scan prediction-market opportunities with overlapping outputs. entity_profile/compare_entities/recent_changes and ai_visibility_check/scan_competitor_ai_presence add further redundancy. Despite detailed descriptions, the boundaries require careful reading, so an agent is likely to misselect.

Naming Consistency3/5

All names are snake_case and readable, with useful prefixes like ask_, polymarket_, pipeworx_, and scan_. However, conventions are mixed: verb_noun (ask_pipeworx, list_subscriptions, resolve_entity) coexists with bare nouns (datasets, metadata, query) and noun-first compounds (entity_profile, bet_research, deep_research). There is no single predictable pattern.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is above the 25-tool threshold, and the set spans multiple unrelated domains such as data routing, prediction markets, memory, subscriptions, Virginia Open Data, AI visibility, and npm dependency checks. Several tools are effectively wrappers or near-overlaps that could be consolidated, e.g., ai_visibility_check vs scan_competitor_ai_presence and polymarket_edges vs polymarket_arbitrage. The surface feels bloated for a single server.

Completeness4/5

Within its main sub-domains the set is solid: memory has remember/recall/forget, subscriptions have subscribe/unsubscribe/list/recent_alerts, research has resolve_entity/compare_entities/entity_profile/recent_changes/validate_claim, and Polymarket has detection/arbitrage/fill-risk/edge-tracking. Minor gaps exist — no tool to fetch a raw pipeworx:// record, no write/update for Virginia Open Data, and no trade execution for prediction markets — but these do not create dead ends for a research-focused agent.

Resources