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by io.github.pipeworx-io

Polymarket Arbitrage

polymarket_arbitrage
Read-onlyIdempotent

Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks. Call with NO args for a trending_scan of the top ~200 markets by weekly volume; pass event for the strongest per-event partition_check, or topic for a themed cross-event scan. event (recommended for a specific market): pass a Polymarket event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k"; walks child markets, checks date-axis / threshold-axis ordering AND computes the partition_check (sum of YES prices across mutually-exclusive legs — should ≈1; deviations >3pp emit a BUY/SELL EVERY LEG signal). topic (for cross-event scanning): pass a seed question like "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" or "Fed rate decision"; searches related events across the platform, flattens markets, runs the comparator on the union. Cross-event mode catches "...by May 31" vs "...by Jun 30" patterns that single-event misses. SEMANTIC ANCHOR: cross-event pairs require ≥0.30 Jaccard similarity on question tokens (prevents Powell-Fed-Pause being paired with Powell-DOJ-probe); skipped_low_similarity surfaces the rejected pair count. PARTITION FILTER: drops will-person-X / will-manager-Y / will-someone-else- placeholder slugs; partitions with >20% placeholder fraction return null arb signal. Response: opportunities[] (gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning, monotonicity violation context), and in event mode partition_check{sum_yes_prices, gap_from_1, placeholders_filtered, suggested_trade}. FILL CHECK: when the partition signal fires, arbitrage.fill_check prices it against live CLOB depth (theoretical_edge_pp_at_book vs realizable_edge_pp at 1000 shares/leg, thin_legs[]) — realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0 means the overround exists only at last-trade, not in the book; do not trade it. For custom sizing use polymarket_fill_risk.

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
eventNoSingle-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like "fed-decision-may-2026" or "when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted.
topicNoCross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like "Fed rate decision" or "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed1 schema field changed
    • removedInput schema / anyOf
      Removed value: -[
-  {
-    "required": [
-      "event"
-    ]
-  },
-  {
-    "required": [
-      "topic"
-    ]
-  }
-]
  2. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / anyOf
      Added value: +[
+  {
+    "required": [
+      "event"
+    ]
+  },
+  {
+    "required": [
+      "topic"
+    ]
+  }
+]
    • changedInput schema / properties / event / description
      Previous value: -"Single-event mode: Polymarket event slug (e.g. \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\") or full URL."New value: +"Single-event mode (use this if you know the specific Polymarket event): event slug like \"fed-decision-may-2026\" or \"when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\". Full Polymarket URLs also accepted."
    • changedInput schema / properties / topic / description
      Previous value: -"Cross-event mode: a topic or seed question. Tool searches Polymarket for related markets across separate events and checks monotonicity across them. E.g. \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\"."New value: +"Cross-event mode (use this if you want to scan related events across the platform): a topic or seed question like \"Fed rate decision\" or \"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal\". Tool searches Polymarket for related events and checks monotonicity across them."
  3. Added

TDQS

A5/5.0
Behavior5/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

The description discloses detailed internal behavior: Jaccard similarity threshold (≥0.30), placeholder filtering (>20% returns null), fill check against live CLOB depth, and >3pp deviation threshold for signals. These specifics go well beyond the annotations (readOnly, openWorld, idempotent) and give the agent a precise model of tool execution.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness5/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long but well-organized with capitalized section headers (SEMANTIC ANCHOR, PARTITION FILTER, FILL CHECK) and no filler sentences. Each clause adds operational detail, and the core purpose is front-loaded, making the length justified.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness5/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

With no output schema, the description fully explains return values (opportunities[], partition_check{}, gap_pp, suggested_trade, reasoning) and edge cases (thin_legs, realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0). It also cross-references polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing, completing the operational context.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters5/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

While the schema already documents both parameters (100% coverage), the description adds substantial meaning: examples of event slugs, behavior with no args (trending_scan), how topic works across events, and acceptance of full Polymarket URLs. This enriches the bare schema definitions significantly.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description opens with 'Find arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket via monotonicity violations + partition-sum checks,' clearly stating the tool's verb, resource, and method. It distinguishes three modes (trending_scan, event, topic) and differentiates from sibling tools like polymarket_fill_risk, making purpose unambiguous.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines5/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description provides explicit 'Call with NO args...' instructions and recommends when to use each mode: 'event (recommended for a specific market)' and 'topic (for cross-event scanning).' It also directs users to polymarket_fill_risk for custom sizing and warns not to trade when realizable_edge_pp ≤ 0, offering clear when-to/not-to-use context.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.7/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

The ask_pipeworx family is a major confusion source: ask_pipeworx_beta explicitly states it 'currently matches ask_pipeworx exactly', and ask_pipeworx_grounded/deep_research heavily overlap with the base router. polymarket_edges vs polymarket_arbitrage and discover_tools vs suggest_questions also have fuzzy boundaries, though long descriptions partially mitigate the overlap.

Naming Consistency4/5

All tool names are lowercase snake_case, and most follow a verb_noun pattern (validate_claim, resolve_entity, compare_entities, generate_llms_txt). A few bare verbs (remember, recall, forget) and noun-style names (entity_profile, polymarket_arbitrage, pipeworx_trending) deviate slightly, but the overall style is predictable and readable.

Tool Count2/5

34 tools is heavy and spans several unrelated domains: Pipeworx data research, prediction markets, subscriptions, memory, AI visibility, advice slips, npm dependency checks, and llms.txt generation. The count is inflated by near-duplicate research routers and disconnected outliers like generate_llms_txt and scan_dependency, making the set feel like a kitchen sink rather than a focused server.

Completeness3/5

The Pipeworx research and prediction-market surfaces are quite complete (ask, grounded, deep research, entity profile, compare, resolve, validate, subscriptions with full lifecycle, memory with save/recall/delete). However, the server is named 'advice' yet the advice domain only has three thin tools (get/search/random) with no other operations, and the mixed domains leave obvious dead ends for any single stated purpose.

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