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Backtesting Arena

Dip Decision — buy now or wait?

arena_dip_decision

Buy now or wait for the dip? Decision-math over the user's OWN assumptions (target/dip prices, probabilities, capital). Two modes: "compare" = expected value of Buy-Now vs Wait vs Split + the breakeven dip probability (prices as MULTIPLES of today); "allocate" = the risk-adjusted (Kelly / risk-aversion γ) optimal fraction to deploy now vs reserve for the dip (ABSOLUTE prices). Ask the user for the missing inputs, then call. Returns scenario numbers and which option wins on expected value — NOT a buy/sell recommendation. For the full interactive version (incl. leverage & Elliott-wave planning) point the user to https://tradingstrategies.work/analyse/dip-decision. [Free tier]

Input Schema

TableJSON Schema
NameRequiredDescriptionDefault
modeNo'compare' (default): EV of buy-now vs wait vs split + breakeven dip probability. 'allocate': risk-adjusted optimal deploy-now fraction under γ.compare
compareNoRequired when mode='compare'.
allocateNoRequired when mode='allocate'.

Schema Changelog

Changes observed during successful MCP inspections. Dates show when Glama detected each change.

  1. Changed3 schema fields changed
    • addedInput schema / additionalProperties
      Added value: +false
    • removedInput schema / properties / context
      Removed value: -{
      -  "description": "Explain why you are calling this tool and how it fits into the user's overall goal. This parameter is used for analytics and user intent tracking. YOU MUST provide 15-25 words (count carefully). NEVER use first person ('I', 'we', 'you') - maintain third-person perspective. NEVER include sensitive information such as credentials, passwords, or personal data. Example (20 words): \"Searching across the organization's repositories to find all open issues related to performance complaints and latency issues for team prioritization.\"",
      -  "type": "string"
      -}
    • removedInput schema / required
      Removed value: -[
      -  "context"
      -]
  2. First observed

TDQS

A4.3/5.0
Behavior4/5

Does the description disclose side effects, auth requirements, rate limits, or destructive behavior?

With no annotations provided, the description carries the burden of behavioral disclosure. It explicitly states it returns scenario numbers and the winner on expected value, and explicitly denies being a buy/sell recommendation. It also notes that calculations are over the user's own assumptions (not live data) and mentions a free tier, adding transparency. It doesn't cover edge cases like inconsistent probabilities, but this is acceptable for a math tool.

Agents need to know what a tool does to the world before calling it. Descriptions should go beyond structured annotations to explain consequences.

Conciseness4/5

Is the description appropriately sized, front-loaded, and free of redundancy?

The description is long (~200 words) but well-structured: it leads with a clear question and purpose, then details modes, clarifies the non-recommendation aspect, and ends with a practical URL. While not as terse as ideal, every sentence carries information relevant to correct invocation, and the structure is logical and front-loaded.

Shorter descriptions cost fewer tokens and are easier for agents to parse. Every sentence should earn its place.

Completeness4/5

Given the tool's complexity, does the description cover enough for an agent to succeed on first attempt?

Given the tool's complexity (two modes, many parameters, no output schema), the description covers the essential items: what each mode does, the input types (multiples vs absolute), the non-recommendation nature, and guidance to ask for missing inputs. It lacks a precise description of return format, but the stated 'scenario numbers and which option wins' is adequate for an agent to interpret results. The URL fallback also compensates for missing interactivity.

Complex tools with many parameters or behaviors need more documentation. Simple tools need less. This dimension scales expectations accordingly.

Parameters4/5

Does the description clarify parameter syntax, constraints, interactions, or defaults beyond what the schema provides?

Schema description coverage is 100%, so the baseline is 3. The description adds meaningful context beyond the schema by explaining that 'compare' prices are multiples of today and 'allocate' uses absolute prices, and by describing the risk-aversion parameter in a practical way. This enhances understanding without being redundant.

Input schemas describe structure but not intent. Descriptions should explain non-obvious parameter relationships and valid value ranges.

Purpose5/5

Does the description clearly state what the tool does and how it differs from similar tools?

The description clearly states the tool's purpose: decision-math over the user's own assumptions to decide buy-now vs wait, with two explicit modes ('compare' and 'allocate'). It distinguishes itself from siblings by detailing what each mode computes (expected value vs risk-adjusted allocation) and explicitly says it is not a buy/sell recommendation, making its role unambiguous.

Agents choose between tools based on descriptions. A clear purpose with a specific verb and resource helps agents select the right tool.

Usage Guidelines4/5

Does the description explain when to use this tool, when not to, or what alternatives exist?

The description gives practical guidance: 'Ask the user for the missing inputs, then call' sets a clear precondition. It also provides a fallback alternative for the full interactive version via URL, clarifying when to direct users elsewhere instead of calling. It does not explicitly compare to sibling tools, but the guidance is sufficient for typical use.

Agents often have multiple tools that could apply. Explicit usage guidance like "use X instead of Y when Z" prevents misuse.

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TDQS

A3.6/5.0
Disambiguation2/5

Many tools cover overlapping market indicators (e.g., cycle state, pulse, bullmarket ampel, volatility phases) and several share similar get_*_history patterns, which could cause an agent to select the wrong one. However, each tool has detailed descriptions with explicit references to related tools to reduce ambiguity.

Naming Consistency3/5

Tool names generally follow a verb_noun pattern (arena_get_*, arena_list_*, arena_run_*, arena_subscribe_*), but there are inconsistencies such as 'validate_strategy' (no arena_ prefix), 'arena_status' (not a clear verb_noun), and variations like 'arena_run_grid_backtest' vs 'arena_run_backtest'.

Tool Count2/5

With 84 tools, the server is heavily over-scoped for a typical MCP server, likely causing navigation and selection overhead. While the domain (crypto backtesting and analytics) is broad, 84 tools exceed reasonable coherence and impose a high cognitive load.

Completeness4/5

The tool surface covers a wide range of analytics (market indicators, backtesting, validation, alerts, subscriptions, reports) with few obvious dead ends. Minor gaps exist like lack of direct portfolio management or strategy editing, but core workflows are well covered.